Wednesday, April 17, 1963: 'American Prospects in South Vietnam'

We believe that Communist progress has been blunted and that the situation is improving.

We believe the Communists will continue to wage a war of attrition, hoping for some break in the situation which will lead to victory.

We do not believe that it is possible at this time to project the future course of the war with any confidence.

Those are among the conclusions of National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) 53-63, prepared by the CIA and the U.S. military and dated April 17. The report's intent was "to assess the situation and prospects in South Vietnam, with special emphasis upon the military and political factors most likely to affect the counterinsurgency movement."

* PDF of report (from www.foia.cia.gov): @
* "Estimative Products on Vietnam, 1948-1975" (National Intelligence Council, 2005; report begins on page 185): @
* "1962-1963: Distortions of Intelligence" (from www.CIA.gov): @ 
* NIE overview (from CIA): @
* NIE overview (from Council on Foreign Relations): @
* "Confrontation or Collobration? Congress and the Intelligence Community" (John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2009): @

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